First Eight Picks A Lock

Now that the bulk of draft eligible players from the NCAA ranks have declared, things are falling into place as to which teams at the top of the draft will take what players. The 2006 NFL Draft promises to be a good one, with depth at the linebacker and offensive tackle positions being excellent. In any given draft, there are usually very few "Blue Chip" prospects. This year, I feel there are more than usual. There are six players that I feel are absolute 'must have' players for just about any team. These players are:

Reggie Bush, Matt Leinhart, Vince Young, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Mario Williams and A.J. Hawk

Keep in mind that things could change based on the possibility of injuries, poor decisions (ie. Marcus Vick) and the emergence of other players in the Combines and/or Pro Day workouts. Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler has been rising up many draft boards, and a good showing at the Senior Bowl could move him into the ranks of the Blue Chippers. Likewise, if Omar Jacobs shows no ill effects of his shoulder injury and throws the ball well at the Bowling Green workouts, he could move up the Wanted lists quite quickly.

However, with all things being what they are right now, I feel that the first six picks will involve the six players I have listed.

Houston takes Reggie Bush
New Orleans takes Matt Leinhart
Tennessee takes Vince Young
New York Jets take D' Brickashaw Ferguson
Green Bay Packers take Mario Williams
San Francisco or Oakland will take A.J. Hawk

After those picks, things get just a bit more murky. Why? If Oakland wins the coin flip and picks Hawk, who will San Francisco chase after? They have a supreme need in their secondary for playmakers. But they also lack a solid pass rush. Do they take Jimmy Williams, Michael Huff or Matthias Kiwanuka? Both Williams and Huff can play either cornerback or safety in the NFL. Both have college experience at the positions. Kiwanuka is still raw, but his talent and upside can't be ignored. However, San Francisco is running a 3-4 now and Kiwi doesn't really fit the profile of a 3-4 DE. Also, the 49ers already have Julian Peterson as their rush linebacker.
However, if San Francisco wins the coin toss and takes Hawk, the Oakland Raiders could take Kiwanuka and replace Bobby Hamilton as one of their defensive ends. But Oakland is expected to let Charles Woodson walk in free agency and that would leave them pretty bare in their secondary. While Fabian Washington played fairly well, he is more of a second corner or nickel player. Nnamdi Asomugha has not developed as the Raiders would have hoped. They are in need of some cover players. The issue is that Kiwanuka is has greater potential to become an elite level player more so than Jimmy Williams or Michael Huff. Also, there is better depth this year at the cornerback position than at the defensive end position. What shall Al Davis do?

After the Bay Area selections are made, Buffalo has to make their decision. They are in the market currently for starting offensive tackles and starting defensive tackles. However, they too could be very interested in Kiwanuka. Buffalo hasn't had an impact defensive end since the hey days of Bruce Smith. Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel aren't exactly pass rushing demons. But Buffalo also had trouble stopping the run, especially in the middle of the line. The departure of Pat Williams last year hurt this team more than they anticipated. They need to replace his run stopping power. Haloti Ngata could be the player to fill that capacity for them. But do they take him or select one of the talented offensive tackles to rebuild their offensive line and protect their young gun slinger J.P. Losman?

There is also the issue of draft trades to be considered. I don't foresee any of the teams in the top seven drafting out of their spots. The Jets are the most likely to move down, but with a new head coach coming in I don't think they will. Since they have picked up an extra fourth round pick from Kansas City, they have no need to try and stockpile even more picks. Besides, Ferguson is not really the type of player you pass on the opportunity to take. Buffalo could be interested in moving down, since in all likelihood there will be teams interested in moving up to have a shot at getting Ngata ahead of Arizona.

The real big question is what will the Lions do? The Lions have needs on both sides of the ball, even if they re-sign Jeff Backus. There is still the issue of the left guard spot. But there is no all dominating Steve Hutchinson style guards available. On defense, the team needs a speed pass rusher (Kiwanuka?), a middle linebacker who can cover, a starter opposite Dre' Bly at cornerback and a free safety with greater range than Terrence Holt. Jimmy Williams or Michael Huff can fill the cornerback or free safety spots.

Most people have lobbied to trade down. I like the idea of this just because the Lions also need depth along the offensive line, linebacker and in the secondary. The Lions are also without their fourth and I anticipate their seventh round picks this year. The fourth was traded in 2005 to New England (which netted us Dan Orlovsky) and our seventh will likely go to the Jets for the Jon McGraw trade prior to the start of the 2005 regular season.

Quantity or quality?