The Shape of Things to Come
And so begins the nations largest shopping spree in professional sports. The NFL Free Agency period has begun (finally) after seeing a number of delays. And already there has been some signings that will impact the top ten in the draft.
1. Houston has openly stated that their pick could be traded if the right offer comes along. For a team in need of a quarterback or running back, the offer may seem intriguing. However there are few teams within earshot of the top pick that have the tools to make that type of trade offer. And with three quarterbacks and three running backs believed by some to be worthy of top ten picks, it makes all the sense in the world for a team to stand pat with their lower pick, or even look to trade down themselves. I fully expect that Houston won't get the right offer to make them trade down. The Texans haven't shown interest in any of the playmaking style free agent running backs that are available. And with their need of a dynamic running back, Reggie Bush is their pick.
2. New Orleans still has Aaron Brooks on their roster, but we can pretty much all agree that he will be released in the coming weeks. The Saints have already set up meetings with Drew Brees, and will make every effort to offer him a contract. The idea of the team offering Brees a contract upset Nick Saban so much that he and some of his coaching staff arranged to meet with Brees in Louisiana to make sure Drew keeps his options open. Should Brees sign with New Orleans, there could be a shake up at the top of the draft board. The Saints are believed to be targeting Matt Leinart with the second pick, but won't be any longer if Drew signs on the dotted line with them. The Saints will try to trade down, and have stated they will accept the best offer to come their way. Like the Houston situation, there are few teams at the top of the draft board with a real need for a quarterback. Oakland is the only team that comes to mind, and their situation could change as well. The Jets may be interested, but won't trade up to get anyone that could fall to them. Should the Saints not find a trade partner after signing Brees, they will likely choose to keep the pick and select offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson.
3. It was well believed that the Titans had their eyes set firmly on Vince Young prior to the Combines. Vince's election to not take place in the workouts was a colossal mistake. Given that he was only weighed, measured and took the Wonderlic test, it should come to no surprise that his test score was big news. But the fact is there are other concerns about Vince that he could have cleared up with a solid workout. Now teams have to wait until he works out for them at the Texas Pro Day. NFL teams really don't like to wait. They will make other plans. It would seem that Jay Cutler electing to workout at the Combines may have paid off for him. The Titans have now given comments that Jay is their preferred pick over Vince. Steve McNair is said to have made a push to management to select Vince Young. But does the Titans brass want to listen to a player who may only be with them another year? Probably not. Head coach Jeff Fischer and offensive coordinator Norm Chow will be the ones with the most input. And I feel they will push hard for Cutler. But if by some chance Leinart falls to them, he would likely be the pick.
4. The Jets and Chad Pennington were able to settle their differences on his exhorbitant contract. But the New York franchise must still get a quarterback to compete with Pennington, or at least be ready if he gets hurt again. While veteran free agents such as Brian Griese, Kerry Collins and Jon Kitna would be attractive additions, there is word that many of the NFL vets don't like the situation in New York and don't want to be part of a new rebuilding process. As a result, the Jets will likely opt to use their pick on a quarterback who will have a chance to soak up the system at the beginning of the season, and may see a chance to play if Chad's shoulder fails to cooperate for a third season. Should the team not elect to pick a quarterback, wisdom tells they will either pick Mario Williams to replace disgruntled John Abraham, or will select D'Brickashaw Ferguson should he still be on the board.
5. The Packers recently re-signed defensive end Aaron Kampman to a healthy, long contract. They have no need for a defensive end. The Packers still have Brett Favre, but who knows if he'll retire or not. Aaron Rogers was taken twenty fourth overall last year and may be ready to take over as starter this season. The Pack really has no need for a quarterback or a defensive end. What they likely will do is try to shore up their sagging linebacking corps by selecting A.J. Hawk with their pick. Regardless of what players fall to them, this is the wise pick. A running back, you say? They resigned Ahman Green for another year of service, and Samkon Gado will be back.
6. The San Francisco 49ers have options. The reason they have options is because they have need for talent at just about every position except quarterback. It has been hard to judge what player they covet in the draft, or what position they want to fill the most. They release Ahmad Plummer, so they may elect to take Jimmy Williams or Michael Huff to replace him. They won't get Julian Peterson back, so they may want to get A.J. Hawk to replace him. Frank Gore and Kevan Barlow are able running backs, but DeAngelo Williams and Lendale White are probably better suited to be feature backs than them. Mario Williams would be a perfect replacement for Andre Carter in the 3-4 defense they run. But I think the 49ers may elect to go with physical wonderkin tight end Vernon Davis. With his remarkable skill set of speed, strength, hands and blocking he would add a target for their young gun slinger Alex Smith. Should Mario Williams fall, the pick would be him. But if Super Mario is off the board, Davis is the likely choice.
7. The Oakland Raiders released Kerry Collings. Actually they released him twice. I guess they really don't want him around any longer. The Raiders now have a need at quarterback. Marquis Tuiasasopo is a career backup who will never be an acceptable starter. Andrew Walter was taken just last year and may have the ability to start this year, but it is doubtful he is the long term answer at the position. It is said that Al Davis is enamored with Vince Young and would love to add him to the Raider Nation. Al is the type of guy who sets his sights on something and does what it takes to get him. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Oakland tries to move up the boards to land Young. If they can't land Vince, the Raiders could go with Jimmy Williams to replace Charles Woodson, or pick Michael Huff to be their new starting strong safety. Then again, some youth along their defensive line would be nice. Haloti Ngata, perhaps?
8. Buffalo would absolutely be tickled if D'Brickashaw Ferguson fell to them. I don't think it will happen, but the Bills would love to have him as the new starter to protect the blindside of J.P. Losman. However, the Bills have a fallback plan. With the release of strong safety Lawyer Milloy the Bills could use their pick on Michael Huff. But in all likelihood the boys in Buffalo would make Haloti Ngata their pick. They need a big body along their defensive line now that they've released Sam Adams and never really replaced Pat Williams after his departure in 2005. Ngata could go earlier, but I think he will still be around for new coach Dick Jauron.
9. The Detroit Lions are in good shape to land a player of need. They could get a quarterback to compete with Joey Harrington, but that's not a likely scenario. They could have a defensive back fall to them, which is likely. Their preference would be to get Michael Huff and make him their new starter at free safety, where his speed and coverage skills would be paramount to the success of the Cover 2 defense the team will install. But there may be some teams farther down in the first round that will become anxious and want to trade up at this point to either get a quarterback or a running back ahead of the Arizona Cardinals. Baltimore, Atlanta and Minnesota all have needs at running back and may try to move up to get their preference. Should the Lions elect to trade down, expect them to focus on defense rather than offense with their pick. They have needs at defensive end, safety and middle linebacker. Any of those three can be had later in round one.
There are still many days left to go in free agency, and the atmosphere of the draft will be effected heavily by what teams do during this time. Should the Lions sign a free agent to play free safety (Chris Hope, Idrees Bashir) they may be more willing to trade away the ninth pick since Michael Huff won't represent a huge need filler. But as we all know, Matt Millen loves to take the best player available. Should he not get an offer he likes to trade the pick, I suspect that Huff may still be the Lions choice.
1. Houston has openly stated that their pick could be traded if the right offer comes along. For a team in need of a quarterback or running back, the offer may seem intriguing. However there are few teams within earshot of the top pick that have the tools to make that type of trade offer. And with three quarterbacks and three running backs believed by some to be worthy of top ten picks, it makes all the sense in the world for a team to stand pat with their lower pick, or even look to trade down themselves. I fully expect that Houston won't get the right offer to make them trade down. The Texans haven't shown interest in any of the playmaking style free agent running backs that are available. And with their need of a dynamic running back, Reggie Bush is their pick.
2. New Orleans still has Aaron Brooks on their roster, but we can pretty much all agree that he will be released in the coming weeks. The Saints have already set up meetings with Drew Brees, and will make every effort to offer him a contract. The idea of the team offering Brees a contract upset Nick Saban so much that he and some of his coaching staff arranged to meet with Brees in Louisiana to make sure Drew keeps his options open. Should Brees sign with New Orleans, there could be a shake up at the top of the draft board. The Saints are believed to be targeting Matt Leinart with the second pick, but won't be any longer if Drew signs on the dotted line with them. The Saints will try to trade down, and have stated they will accept the best offer to come their way. Like the Houston situation, there are few teams at the top of the draft board with a real need for a quarterback. Oakland is the only team that comes to mind, and their situation could change as well. The Jets may be interested, but won't trade up to get anyone that could fall to them. Should the Saints not find a trade partner after signing Brees, they will likely choose to keep the pick and select offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson.
3. It was well believed that the Titans had their eyes set firmly on Vince Young prior to the Combines. Vince's election to not take place in the workouts was a colossal mistake. Given that he was only weighed, measured and took the Wonderlic test, it should come to no surprise that his test score was big news. But the fact is there are other concerns about Vince that he could have cleared up with a solid workout. Now teams have to wait until he works out for them at the Texas Pro Day. NFL teams really don't like to wait. They will make other plans. It would seem that Jay Cutler electing to workout at the Combines may have paid off for him. The Titans have now given comments that Jay is their preferred pick over Vince. Steve McNair is said to have made a push to management to select Vince Young. But does the Titans brass want to listen to a player who may only be with them another year? Probably not. Head coach Jeff Fischer and offensive coordinator Norm Chow will be the ones with the most input. And I feel they will push hard for Cutler. But if by some chance Leinart falls to them, he would likely be the pick.
4. The Jets and Chad Pennington were able to settle their differences on his exhorbitant contract. But the New York franchise must still get a quarterback to compete with Pennington, or at least be ready if he gets hurt again. While veteran free agents such as Brian Griese, Kerry Collins and Jon Kitna would be attractive additions, there is word that many of the NFL vets don't like the situation in New York and don't want to be part of a new rebuilding process. As a result, the Jets will likely opt to use their pick on a quarterback who will have a chance to soak up the system at the beginning of the season, and may see a chance to play if Chad's shoulder fails to cooperate for a third season. Should the team not elect to pick a quarterback, wisdom tells they will either pick Mario Williams to replace disgruntled John Abraham, or will select D'Brickashaw Ferguson should he still be on the board.
5. The Packers recently re-signed defensive end Aaron Kampman to a healthy, long contract. They have no need for a defensive end. The Packers still have Brett Favre, but who knows if he'll retire or not. Aaron Rogers was taken twenty fourth overall last year and may be ready to take over as starter this season. The Pack really has no need for a quarterback or a defensive end. What they likely will do is try to shore up their sagging linebacking corps by selecting A.J. Hawk with their pick. Regardless of what players fall to them, this is the wise pick. A running back, you say? They resigned Ahman Green for another year of service, and Samkon Gado will be back.
6. The San Francisco 49ers have options. The reason they have options is because they have need for talent at just about every position except quarterback. It has been hard to judge what player they covet in the draft, or what position they want to fill the most. They release Ahmad Plummer, so they may elect to take Jimmy Williams or Michael Huff to replace him. They won't get Julian Peterson back, so they may want to get A.J. Hawk to replace him. Frank Gore and Kevan Barlow are able running backs, but DeAngelo Williams and Lendale White are probably better suited to be feature backs than them. Mario Williams would be a perfect replacement for Andre Carter in the 3-4 defense they run. But I think the 49ers may elect to go with physical wonderkin tight end Vernon Davis. With his remarkable skill set of speed, strength, hands and blocking he would add a target for their young gun slinger Alex Smith. Should Mario Williams fall, the pick would be him. But if Super Mario is off the board, Davis is the likely choice.
7. The Oakland Raiders released Kerry Collings. Actually they released him twice. I guess they really don't want him around any longer. The Raiders now have a need at quarterback. Marquis Tuiasasopo is a career backup who will never be an acceptable starter. Andrew Walter was taken just last year and may have the ability to start this year, but it is doubtful he is the long term answer at the position. It is said that Al Davis is enamored with Vince Young and would love to add him to the Raider Nation. Al is the type of guy who sets his sights on something and does what it takes to get him. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Oakland tries to move up the boards to land Young. If they can't land Vince, the Raiders could go with Jimmy Williams to replace Charles Woodson, or pick Michael Huff to be their new starting strong safety. Then again, some youth along their defensive line would be nice. Haloti Ngata, perhaps?
8. Buffalo would absolutely be tickled if D'Brickashaw Ferguson fell to them. I don't think it will happen, but the Bills would love to have him as the new starter to protect the blindside of J.P. Losman. However, the Bills have a fallback plan. With the release of strong safety Lawyer Milloy the Bills could use their pick on Michael Huff. But in all likelihood the boys in Buffalo would make Haloti Ngata their pick. They need a big body along their defensive line now that they've released Sam Adams and never really replaced Pat Williams after his departure in 2005. Ngata could go earlier, but I think he will still be around for new coach Dick Jauron.
9. The Detroit Lions are in good shape to land a player of need. They could get a quarterback to compete with Joey Harrington, but that's not a likely scenario. They could have a defensive back fall to them, which is likely. Their preference would be to get Michael Huff and make him their new starter at free safety, where his speed and coverage skills would be paramount to the success of the Cover 2 defense the team will install. But there may be some teams farther down in the first round that will become anxious and want to trade up at this point to either get a quarterback or a running back ahead of the Arizona Cardinals. Baltimore, Atlanta and Minnesota all have needs at running back and may try to move up to get their preference. Should the Lions elect to trade down, expect them to focus on defense rather than offense with their pick. They have needs at defensive end, safety and middle linebacker. Any of those three can be had later in round one.
There are still many days left to go in free agency, and the atmosphere of the draft will be effected heavily by what teams do during this time. Should the Lions sign a free agent to play free safety (Chris Hope, Idrees Bashir) they may be more willing to trade away the ninth pick since Michael Huff won't represent a huge need filler. But as we all know, Matt Millen loves to take the best player available. Should he not get an offer he likes to trade the pick, I suspect that Huff may still be the Lions choice.
posted by Mike @ 9:03 AM
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